Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.450582 5.234893 6.102943 7.132955 8.319758 9.642225 11.225350
2025-08-10 3.018830 4.003062 5.213182 6.801625 8.821868 11.294695 14.538703
2025-08-17 2.140869 3.147805 4.501956 6.436454 9.105409 12.630555 17.605758
2025-08-24 1.646120 2.646894 4.100337 6.330774 9.624007 14.254543 21.189775
2025-08-31 1.311014 2.283760 3.796226 6.267507 10.136980 15.876963 24.917522
2025-09-07 1.129490 2.111097 3.730959 6.525048 11.124993 18.264696 29.994747
2025-09-14 0.949874 1.898577 3.554813 6.560355 11.744133 20.132292 34.455147
2025-09-21 0.805798 1.716033 3.391334 6.578410 12.316263 21.961608 39.018216
2025-09-28 0.688949 1.558656 3.241529 6.588156 12.858994 23.778410 43.719935
2025-10-05 0.658736 1.567614 3.400992 7.182769 14.504846 27.625779 52.220653
2025-10-12 0.593951 1.489773 3.376247 7.416518 15.504803 30.426620 59.143015
2025-10-19 0.540033 1.424494 3.364893 7.670933 16.566078 33.428543 66.683447
2025-10-26 0.469549 1.308658 3.233313 7.671316 17.152763 35.655055 73.103762
2025-11-02 0.390599 1.154559 2.991577 7.402113 17.162564 36.792136 77.604974
2025-11-09 0.319251 1.002303 2.725657 7.035670 16.916631 37.394935 81.123527
2025-11-16 0.273977 0.909238 2.584025 6.930653 17.218030 39.120876 87.017953
2025-11-23 0.237502 0.831958 2.467251 6.865229 17.595649 41.034166 93.456748
2025-11-30 0.220689 0.809691 2.489732 7.146297 18.802259 44.814252 104.096214
2025-12-07 0.196421 0.757600 2.421747 7.185079 19.436907 47.405549 112.421128
2025-12-14 0.174608 0.707788 2.350845 7.204844 20.025985 49.946783 120.847657
2025-12-21 0.155277 0.661251 2.280684 7.215486 20.592176 52.485041 129.475111
2025-12-28 0.155669 0.686341 2.430514 7.861505 22.850308 59.119790 147.803038
2026-01-04 0.145183 0.667932 2.442588 8.115358 24.115566 63.529425 161.395395